The Iowa caucuses are biennial electoral events for members of the Democratic and Republican Parties in the U.S. state of Iowa. Unlike primary elections in most other U.S. states, where registered voters go to polling places to cast ballots, Iowans instead gather at local caucus meetings to discuss and vote on the candidates. During both the presidential and midterm election seasons, registered Iowan voters vote in a per-precinct caucus for the party of which they are registered as a member.[1] The caucuses are also held to select delegates to county conventions and party committees, among other party activities.[2]
The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy as the first major contest of the United States presidential primary season.[3] The caucuses are seen as a strong indicator by some of how a presidential candidate will do in later contests.[4] This could be seen as a circular argument, however, as the Iowa caucus, being the first, likely strongly influences later races and can provide candidates with momentum going into the following contests. Further, candidates who do poorly in the Iowa caucus are likely to drop out in the following days.[5] The 2020 presidential caucuses are scheduled for February 3, 2020
Background
Political parties in Iowa have used caucuses to select party leaders and candidates for office since the 1800s.[7] Before 1907, parties selected all candidates for political office through the caucus system.[7] Iowa held a presidential primary in 1916, but returned to the caucus system in 1917 due to high costs and low participation.[7]
After the 1968 Democratic National Convention protest activity, the Democratic Party decided to make changes to their presidential nomination process by spreading out the schedule in each state. Because Iowa had a complex process of precinct caucuses, county conventions, district conventions, and a state convention, they chose to start early. In 1972, Iowa was the first state to hold its Democratic caucus, and it had the first Republican caucus four years later.[8]
Under Iowa law, political parties are required to hold caucuses every two years to select delegates to county conventions and party committees.[2]
Process
The Iowa caucuses operate very differently from the primary election used by most other states (see U.S. presidential primary). The caucuses are generally defined as "gatherings of neighbors". Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa's 1,681 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, public libraries, or even individuals' houses. Caucuses are held every two years, during both the presidential and midterm election seasons, but those that receive national attention are the presidential preference caucuses, held every four years. The rules of the caucus process to determine delegates to national conventions are determined by the party, and differ substantially between the Democratic and Republican Parties.
In addition to the voting and the presidential preference choices, caucus-goers begin the process of writing their parties' platforms by introducing resolutions.
Each precinct divides its delegate seats among the candidates in proportion to caucus goers' votes. Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a preference group). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.
After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted, and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are viable. Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the viability threshold is 15% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to realign: the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or abstain. This realignment is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike in a primary) a voter's second choice can help a candidate.
When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention. These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media. Most of the participants go home, leaving a few to finish the business of the caucus: each preference group elects its delegates, and then the groups reconvene to elect local party officers and discuss the platform. The delegates chosen by the precinct then go to a later caucus, the county convention, to choose delegates to the district convention and state convention. Most of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention are selected at the district convention, with the remaining ones selected at the state convention. Delegates to each level of convention are initially bound to support their chosen candidate but can later switch in a process very similar to what occurs at the precinct level; however, as major shifts in delegate support are rare, the media declares the candidate with the most delegates on the precinct caucus night the winner, and relatively little attention is paid to the later caucuses.
In 2014, the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) announced changes to the caucus system that will allow members of the military to participate in a statewide caucus and establish satellite caucuses for voters with disabilities and others who have trouble making it to the physical location of the caucuses. They will also work for the passage of a new law that requires employers to allow employees to take time off for the caucuses.[10]
In 2016, the IDP held a tele-caucus for military members serving out-of-state and Iowans living abroad. In addition, it held satellite caucuses in 2016, in an attempt to improve accessibility and participation in the Iowa caucuses.[citation needed] Starting in 2020, 10% of state convention delegates will be assigned through tele-caucuses.[11]
Beginning with the 2020 caucus, the IDP will change the way that results are publicly announced. Traditionally, the party has only announced "State Delegate Equivalents", based on a calculation of likely delegate results after the state caucus is held. For 2020, the IDP will also announce a statewide raw vote count after the first alignment round (including results for all non-viable candidates) and a statewide raw vote count for all viable candidates after the second alignment round.[12]
Republican Party
For Republicans, the Iowa caucus previously followed (but should not be confused with) the Iowa Straw Poll in August of the preceding year. The Iowa Straw Poll was held six times, but only three Straw Poll winners went on to win the caucus the following year. In June 2015, the party announced that the Straw Poll would no longer take place.
The process of selecting Iowa delegates to the Republican National Convention prior to the 2016 election cycle started with selection of delegates to the county conventions, which in turn affected the delegates elected to district conventions who also served as delegates to the state convention where delegates were chosen for the national convention.
This process rewarded candidate organizers who not only got supporters to the caucus sites but also got supporters willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and willing to vote for other delegates who supported a specific candidate. In 2012, this process resulted in Ron Paul supporters dominating the Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention, having 22 of the 28 Iowa delegates, with Mitt Romney getting the other six delegates.
Because the delegates elected at the caucuses are not required to declare a candidate preference, the media does not always have a purely objective way to determine the success of individual candidates at the caucuses. The media focused on the secret ballot polling conducted at the caucus sites and have generally referred to this non-binding poll as the caucus. There were irregularities in the 2012 caucus site polling results, including the fact that eight precinct results went missing and were never counted.
Because of the irregularities in the process and the fact that the totals reported to the media were unrelated to the delegate selection process, there have been changes in both how the caucus site secret ballot polling is sent to state party headquarters and in how Iowa delegates to the national convention are required to vote.
Beginning with the 2012 presidential election, Iowa switched from the old winner-take-all allocation to proportional allocation. The change was made to prolong the race, giving lesser known candidates a chance and making it harder for a frontrunner to secure the majority early. It was also hoped that this change in the election system would energize the base of the party.[13][14]
Starting in 2016, caucus results have become binding when selecting delegates.[15] Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound on the first ballot to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites.[16]
History
Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 55% success rate at predicting which Democrat, and a 43% success rate at predicting which Republican will go on to win the nomination of their political party for president at that party's national convention[17][18]
2004
The Iowa caucuses are noteworthy as the first major contest of the United States presidential primary season.[3] The caucuses are seen as a strong indicator by some of how a presidential candidate will do in later contests.[4] This could be seen as a circular argument, however, as the Iowa caucus, being the first, likely strongly influences later races and can provide candidates with momentum going into the following contests. Further, candidates who do poorly in the Iowa caucus are likely to drop out in the following days.[5] The 2020 presidential caucuses are scheduled for February 3, 2020
Background
Political parties in Iowa have used caucuses to select party leaders and candidates for office since the 1800s.[7] Before 1907, parties selected all candidates for political office through the caucus system.[7] Iowa held a presidential primary in 1916, but returned to the caucus system in 1917 due to high costs and low participation.[7]
After the 1968 Democratic National Convention protest activity, the Democratic Party decided to make changes to their presidential nomination process by spreading out the schedule in each state. Because Iowa had a complex process of precinct caucuses, county conventions, district conventions, and a state convention, they chose to start early. In 1972, Iowa was the first state to hold its Democratic caucus, and it had the first Republican caucus four years later.[8]
Under Iowa law, political parties are required to hold caucuses every two years to select delegates to county conventions and party committees.[2]
Process
The Iowa caucuses operate very differently from the primary election used by most other states (see U.S. presidential primary). The caucuses are generally defined as "gatherings of neighbors". Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa's 1,681 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, public libraries, or even individuals' houses. Caucuses are held every two years, during both the presidential and midterm election seasons, but those that receive national attention are the presidential preference caucuses, held every four years. The rules of the caucus process to determine delegates to national conventions are determined by the party, and differ substantially between the Democratic and Republican Parties.
In addition to the voting and the presidential preference choices, caucus-goers begin the process of writing their parties' platforms by introducing resolutions.
Each precinct divides its delegate seats among the candidates in proportion to caucus goers' votes. Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a preference group). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.
After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted, and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are viable. Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the viability threshold is 15% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to realign: the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or abstain. This realignment is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike in a primary) a voter's second choice can help a candidate.
When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention. These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media. Most of the participants go home, leaving a few to finish the business of the caucus: each preference group elects its delegates, and then the groups reconvene to elect local party officers and discuss the platform. The delegates chosen by the precinct then go to a later caucus, the county convention, to choose delegates to the district convention and state convention. Most of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention are selected at the district convention, with the remaining ones selected at the state convention. Delegates to each level of convention are initially bound to support their chosen candidate but can later switch in a process very similar to what occurs at the precinct level; however, as major shifts in delegate support are rare, the media declares the candidate with the most delegates on the precinct caucus night the winner, and relatively little attention is paid to the later caucuses.
In 2014, the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP) announced changes to the caucus system that will allow members of the military to participate in a statewide caucus and establish satellite caucuses for voters with disabilities and others who have trouble making it to the physical location of the caucuses. They will also work for the passage of a new law that requires employers to allow employees to take time off for the caucuses.[10]
In 2016, the IDP held a tele-caucus for military members serving out-of-state and Iowans living abroad. In addition, it held satellite caucuses in 2016, in an attempt to improve accessibility and participation in the Iowa caucuses.[citation needed] Starting in 2020, 10% of state convention delegates will be assigned through tele-caucuses.[11]
Beginning with the 2020 caucus, the IDP will change the way that results are publicly announced. Traditionally, the party has only announced "State Delegate Equivalents", based on a calculation of likely delegate results after the state caucus is held. For 2020, the IDP will also announce a statewide raw vote count after the first alignment round (including results for all non-viable candidates) and a statewide raw vote count for all viable candidates after the second alignment round.[12]
Republican Party
For Republicans, the Iowa caucus previously followed (but should not be confused with) the Iowa Straw Poll in August of the preceding year. The Iowa Straw Poll was held six times, but only three Straw Poll winners went on to win the caucus the following year. In June 2015, the party announced that the Straw Poll would no longer take place.
The process of selecting Iowa delegates to the Republican National Convention prior to the 2016 election cycle started with selection of delegates to the county conventions, which in turn affected the delegates elected to district conventions who also served as delegates to the state convention where delegates were chosen for the national convention.
This process rewarded candidate organizers who not only got supporters to the caucus sites but also got supporters willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and willing to vote for other delegates who supported a specific candidate. In 2012, this process resulted in Ron Paul supporters dominating the Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention, having 22 of the 28 Iowa delegates, with Mitt Romney getting the other six delegates.
Because the delegates elected at the caucuses are not required to declare a candidate preference, the media does not always have a purely objective way to determine the success of individual candidates at the caucuses. The media focused on the secret ballot polling conducted at the caucus sites and have generally referred to this non-binding poll as the caucus. There were irregularities in the 2012 caucus site polling results, including the fact that eight precinct results went missing and were never counted.
Because of the irregularities in the process and the fact that the totals reported to the media were unrelated to the delegate selection process, there have been changes in both how the caucus site secret ballot polling is sent to state party headquarters and in how Iowa delegates to the national convention are required to vote.
Beginning with the 2012 presidential election, Iowa switched from the old winner-take-all allocation to proportional allocation. The change was made to prolong the race, giving lesser known candidates a chance and making it harder for a frontrunner to secure the majority early. It was also hoped that this change in the election system would energize the base of the party.[13][14]
Starting in 2016, caucus results have become binding when selecting delegates.[15] Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound on the first ballot to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites.[16]
History
Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have had a 55% success rate at predicting which Democrat, and a 43% success rate at predicting which Republican will go on to win the nomination of their political party for president at that party's national convention[17][18]
2004
Since Republican President George W. Bush did not face any opposition in 2004, only Democratic caucuses were held. The meetings ran from 6:30 p.m. until approximately 7:00 p.m. on January 19, 2004, with a turnout of about 124,000 caucus-goers.[19] The county convention occurred on March 13, the district convention on April 24, and the state convention on June 26. Delegates could and did change their votes based on further developments in the race; for instance, in 2004 the delegates pledged to Dick Gephardt, who left the race after the precinct caucuses, chose a different candidate to support at the county, district, and state level.
The number of delegates each candidate receives eventually determines how many state delegates from Iowa that candidate will have at the Democratic National Convention. Iowa sends 56 delegates to the DNC out of a total 4,366.
Of the 45 delegates that were chosen through the caucus system, 29 were chosen at the district level. Ten delegates were at-large delegates, and six were "party leader and elected official" (PLEO) delegates; these were assigned at the state convention. There were also 11 other delegates, eight of whom were appointed from local Democratic National Committee members; two were PLEO delegates and one was elected at the state Democratic convention. John Kerry won the Iowa caucuses with 37.64% of the vote, John Edwards coming second.
2008
The 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses and 2008 Iowa Republican caucuses took place January 3 at 7 p.m. CT.[20] Candidates spent tens of millions of dollars on local television advertisements[21] and hundreds of paid staff[22] in dozens of field offices.[23] Barack Obama (D) and Mike Huckabee (R) were the eventual winners.
2012
The 2012 Iowa caucuses took place on Tuesday, January 3, starting at 7 p.m. CST. Incumbent president Barack Obama only faced minor opposition in the Democratic caucus and received 98% of the vote,[24] but the Republican caucus was heavily contested between several challengers. Initial results reported that Mitt Romney beat out Rick Santorum by just 8 votes,[25] but when the final results came out two weeks later Rick Santorum secured the victory over Romney by a margin of 34 votes with Ron Paul in a strong 3rd. Results were certified by the Caucus, but not by the Republican party, who declared it a split decision due to missing reports from 8 precincts,[26] but who later certified the caucus as a win for Santorum.[27] The caucus winner changed yet again when the Iowa delegate totals were finally determined giving Ron Paul the win along with several other states that same weekend.[28]
2016
The 2016 Iowa caucuses took place on Monday, February 1. The counting started at 7 p.m. CST and lasted one hour, after the caucus discussions.[29] For the first time, results were electronically sent to both Democratic and Republican headquarters.[30]
In the Democratic caucus, Hillary Clinton received 45.10% of the vote and 23 pledged delegates, defeating Bernie Sanders, with 41.18% and 21 delegates.[31] The Republican caucus awarded delegates to nine candidates: 8 to Ted Cruz, with 27.6% of the vote; 7 each to Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, with 24.3% and 23.1% respectively; 3 to Ben Carson, with 9.3%; and 1 delegate each to five other candidates.[32]
2020
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق